Farhan Hassan Al Shammari*
IMF: Global Growth will Rise to 5.8%

In World Economic Outlook last report. The Great Lockdown " of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected the global growth to rise to 5.8% next year 2021, if the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020. Although it said that the COVID-9 consider as one of the biggest economic crises that facing the world.


Advanced, Emerging and Developing Economies

As this expectation is driven primarily by growth in countries such as India and China. Recovery in big, services-reliant, economies that have been hit hard by the outbreak, such as the UK or Italy, is expected to be in a slow process of recovery.



Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions) said: “With growth in emerging and developing economies likely to remain slow, policymakers should seize the opportunity to undertake structural reforms that boost broad-based growth, which is essential to poverty reduction, ”Also, said: “Steps to improve the business climate, the rule of law, debt management, and productivity can help achieve sustained growth.”


Oil prices

The report mentioned that as of March, the futures contracts indicate rising Brent prices close to $45 over the next five years.

Assumptions

Baseline assumptions, that the average annual prices of $34.80 a barrel in 2020— a decrease of 43.3% from the 2019 average— and $36.40 a barrel in 2021


Risks





IMF Conclusion

The Chair of IMF at the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion of the Fiscal Monitor, Global Financial Stability Report, and World Economic Outlook said that:

“Executive Directors broadly shared the assessment of the global economic outlook, risks, and policy priorities. They agreed that the outlook is dominated by the global health crisis from the COVID-19 pandemic, and the extreme uncertainty about its course, intensity, and impact.

The expected sharp contraction of the global economy in 2020 is likely much worse than during the 2008–09 global financial crisis, as a significant portion of the global economy has been shut down. 

Directors noted that the projected global recovery in 2021 is predicated on the pandemic fading in the second half of 2020 and the effectiveness of policy actions to contain its economic fallout.”


Epilogue

Under these expectations for 2021 and what we hear and circulate from the beginning of the end to reach vaccines and treatments for the Corona epidemic recently, shows that seems that the incoming scenario is more positive and optimistic about the global economic recovery.

Oil prices and the balance of the energy market in general is considered as one of main and real indicators of global economic recovery.


 

Farhan Hassan Al Shammari

‏e-mail: fhshasn@gmail.com

Twitter: @farhan_939


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